DATA4400: Data-driven Forecast Techniques
Learn the fundamentals of data analysis, statistical methods, and visualization techniques to extract meaningful insights from complex datasets.
Data-driven Decisions and Subjective Methods
January 10 - January 16, 2025
Welcome to the first week of DATA4400! This week we'll explore the fundamentals of data analysis and get familiar with the key concepts and tools we'll use throughout the course.
Course Syllabus
Detailed overview of course objectives, grading policy, and expectations.
View SyllabusPen-and-Paper Exercises #2
Understand the difference between qualitative and quantitative forecasting
Access Reading ListForecasting Techniques: Regression Models
January 17 - January 23, 2025
This week we'll explore linear regression for forecasting and trend analysis techniques.
Forecasting: Smoothing, Seasonals, and Prophet
January 24 - January 30, 2025
This week we learn about Moving Average, Time-series decomposition and Prophet
Illustration of Time-series decomposition
Additive and Multiplicative Decomposition.
Watch RecordingAssessment 1: In-Class Group Assessment
January 31 - February 6, 2025
This week focuses on Assessment 1 with group presentations and data analysis.
Assessment Instruction
In-class instructions for Assessment 1: groups, tools, models (weeks 1–4), handouts, presentation style, submission, and timing.
View InstructionsGroup Presentation Guidelines
Instructions and requirements for the group assessment.
View GuidelinesIndividual Report Template
Template for the individual Prophet model analysis report.
Download TemplateExponential Smoothing and Holt-Winters Method
April 14th, 2025
This week we learn about Exponential Smoothing and Holt-Winter
Advanced Forecasting: Stationarity and ARMA Models
February 14 - February 20, 2025
This week we'll explore time series stationarity, correlogram analysis, and ARMA modeling.
ARIMA and SARIMA Models
April 28th, 2025
This week we learn about ARIMA, SARIMA
VAR Models, Granger Causality, External Predictors
February 28 - March 6, 2025
This week we'll explore vector autoregression models and causal relationships in time series.
Analytics Case Studies + Assessment 2
March 7 - March 13, 2025
This week focuses on real-world applications and Assessment 2 completion.
Forecasting vs Prediction; Multiple Regression & Recommender
March 14 - March 20, 2025
This week we'll distinguish between forecasting and prediction, and explore recommender systems.
Lecture Slides
Forecasting vs prediction, multiple regression, and recommender systems.
Download SlidesRevision Week
May 26th, 2025
This week we learn about Bayes Theorem
Assessment 3: Individual Presentations
March 28 - April 3, 2025
This week focuses on Assessment 3 with individual presentations and final project submission.
Project Report Template
Template for the comprehensive forecasting analysis report.
Download Template