Prophet is a forecasting procedure developed by Facebook that excels at producing high-quality forecasts for time series data with strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data.
Interactive Features:
- Forecast Horizon Slider: Adjust how far into the future the model predicts (3-24 months).
- Trend Flexibility: Control how sensitive the trend is to changes in the data (more flexibility = more changepoints).
- Component Toggles: Turn on/off yearly seasonality, weekly seasonality, and holiday effects.
- Confidence Interval: Toggle the uncertainty bounds around the forecast.
- Holiday Editor: Add or remove specific holiday events to see their impact on the forecast.
Experiment with different settings to see how they affect the forecast. Try adding major holidays like Black Friday or New Year's to see how Prophet incorporates these events into its predictions.